Reliability Of Indigenous Traditional Knowledge And Conventional Weather Forecastsin The Face Of Climate Change And Variability In Baringo County, Kenya

Research Article
Muriithi, GM., Olago, DO., Ouma, GO and Oriaso, SO
Pastoralists, Weather Forecast, and Climate Change

The research study evaluated the reliability of Indigenous Traditional Knowledge (ITK) and conventional weather forecasts in the face of climate change and variability in Baringo County, Kenya. Systematic sampling technique was applied in drawing a sample size of 454 pastoralists and agro-pastoralists interviewed. Majority (68%) of the respondents have not been aware of blend/mixture of ITK and scientific forecasting techniques. Majority (78% ,77 %,74%, 61%,73%,73% and 71%) of the respondents perceived that conventional weather forecast approach is reliable on predicting short-rains season, long-rain season, rainfall intensity, landslide, thunder storm, expected rainfall onset and cessation, and El-Nino respectively. The majority (71%, 69%, 75% and 64%) of the pastoralists and agro-pastoralists professed that ITK weather forecast approach is reliable on predicting floods, seasonal rain distribution, temperatures and La-Nina respectively. None of the two weather forecasts approaches could exhaustively forecast the climate/weather events alone. The integration of the two approaches is ultimate for effective reliability