estimation of expected time to seroconversion due to either antigenic diversity or virulence when virulence distribution undergoes a change

Research Article
R. Ramajayam, R. Elangovan and R. Sathiyamoorthi
Antigenic Diversity Threshold, Virulence Threshold, Seroconversion, Change of Distribution

The spread of HIV is a major issue which has received the attention of the medical personnel, mathematicians and also the people in the government. The rate of spread is really alarming. Till this day no medicine for complete cure is available. The mathematicians and statisticians use stochastic models to study the different aspects of this infection. An interesting aspect of study is to estimate the expected time to seroconversion using the concept of antigenic diversity. In this paper using two thresholds namely antigenic diversity and virulence thresholds expected time to seroconversion is found out under the assumption that the seroconversion occurs if any one of the two thresholds is crossed due to accumulation of antigens on successive occasions of exposure. The antigenic diversity threshold is taken to be a random variable which undergoes of change distribution. Numerical illustrations are alsoprovided